If you compare the pupa of a scarab beetle:
http://www.insectimages.org/br...
with that of a Noctuidae moth (e.g. cutworm, armyworm etc.):
http://bugguide.net/node/view/...
It looks more like the moth pupa to me. I did "hatch" one and it definitely turned into a moth - it somehow escaped and went flapping around the house. DH was not amused
The current pupa may just need to wait for what, to it, is the right time to emerge. I don't know what the cues are, it seems a little early for it to require chilling. It could be a combination of daylength and temperature - since we don't know what it is it isn't possible to look up any specific requirements. I guess waiting it out is the only option.
