Dennis - That is very interesting what you did to try to get a prediction based on the blooms! You might be right! I think your second photo may be what this one will wind up looking like.
Here is a photo I took late this afternoon of the bud that looks like it might just bloom tomorrow. (Photo looks better NOT enlarging it.) Hopefully the rain won't ruin the bloom before I get a photo of it.
Very similar to Wild One's buds before opening.